Yesterday, someone asked me how the games industry is doing as a whole; whether it’s growing.
I answered ‘I suppose so’ – since the world population is increasing, while many countries are in full development and having increasing access to the technology required to play digital games.
To back-up my assumptions, I quickly googled for a chart, and found the following one on the website of Newzoo:
Taking a closer look at this graph, the strongest growing markets would be the smartphone and tablet markets: according to Newzoo, an 85% growth would be expected for iOS and Android games between 2013 and 2016.
The global market for iOS and Android games is expected to grow by 60% in the next three years.
Not everyone is expecting such a huge growth in tablet and smartphone – for instance IDATE seems to be expecting a 35% growth in the segment, as can be deduced from the graph:
Assuming the truth lies in the middle, we could say that the global market for iOS and Android games is expected to grow by 60% in the next three years.
My guess is that the console market will break down, because the types of games that are published are multi-platform first. If production costs are as high as today, the industry will be forced to run indie/f2p/or consolidate without limits, and due to the wide diversity of platforms, games will strive to maximize reachability as first priority. Even if a studio breaks lucky with a blockbuster release and millions of copies sold, if the miracle does not repeat, a closed circuit launch system is bound to go bust eventually. So the PS4 and Xbox One cycle might be the last big console cycle. If other platforms run the same content, or run content that is at least as fun, the higher costs of consoles (both for consumers and developers) are going to soften the reason for consoles to exist, until they become irrelevant. And provided no new players emerge from Asian markets, I expect Android and iOS are going to cut the cake. But that’s a big if..